Assessment of the economic feasibility of blue carbon projects in Australia

This data collection presents the results of a continental scale assessment of the economic feasibility of blue carbon projects in Australia. A land use trade-offs approach is employed to estimate the economic profitability of current agriculture and blue carbon projects at locations identified as having the potential to support either mangrove, saltmarsh or salt flat natural systems. Where blue carbon economic returns are greater than estimated current agricultural economic returns then a project is considered economically feasible.
The specific projects in scope are those that re-introduce tidal flow to coastal ecosystems and lead to net abatement of carbon emissions, that is, projects that are relevant to the Tidal Restoration of Blue Carbon Ecosystems method of the Australian Government Clean Energy Regulator.
At each identified location estimates of abatement were calculated using the BlueCAM model. Carbon abatement was calculated using the BlueCAM method (Lovelock et al. 2022) as described in the BlueCAM technical report (Lovelock et al. 2021), the carbon credits determination (Australian Government Clean Energy Regulator 2022) and the BlueCAM spreadsheet tool (Australian Government Clean Energy Regulator 2021). Our implementation was simplified according to our objective of estimating abatement per se rather than formally calculating carbon credits. For example, abatement was calculated on a one-year time step rather than reporting periods and project-level emissions (such as fuel use) were not included. Total abatement is calculated over 25 years following tidal introduction.
The net present value of blue carbon projects was estimated for combinations of carbon price, costs, and discount rates. Scenario settings:
• cp -> carbon price [$35, $50, $65, $80]
• ec -> establishment costs per hectare [$1000, $2000, $4000, $6000, $8000 and $10,000]
• ac -> 5-yearly costs per hectare [$100, $200, $300]
• dr -> discount rate for net present value [4%, 7%]
Modelled economically feasible abatement and area for carbon estimation areas under four carbon prices are presented aggregated by Statistical Area 2 (2011) and Local Government Areas (2023), which were clipped to 100km from the coast, by primary sediment compartments (McPherson et al., 2015) and by state/territory. Results are grouped by combinations of scenario settings and includes modelled maximum potential abatement and area.