Load Shedding and Crime in South Africa — Replication Archive

Replication archive for "Load Shedding and Crime in SouthAfrica: Causal Estimates, Mechanism Evidence, and theDistributional Welfare of the Energy-Apartheid Externality."

Contents:- PAPER/ — manuscript source (Overleaf .tex), rendered PDF- CODE/ — analysis scripts: data ingestion, paper regressions,  Session 22-28 additions on the scheduled-vs-unscheduled  question, and shared helpers- DATA/ — parquet snapshots of every database table the paper  uses (~280 MB across 34 tables), schema DDL, station  crosswalks, third-party-source provenance- RESULTS/ — per-session output directories (tables and figures)- DOCUMENTATION/ — 33 session reports + methodological notes +  section drafts

All data sources are public and properly cited. Restoration toa fresh Postgres database is documented in DATA/README.md.

The headline causal estimates (a −1.26% decline in residentialburglary and a −1.23% decline in theft from motor vehicle per+100 outage hours, both p<0.0001 on 200-iteration bootstrap)are reproducible from DATA/panels/ via the scripts inCODE/analysis/. Seven indirect tests of thebehavioural-adaptation channel (three unscheduled-outage proxiesin §5.8 plus four reframed identification strategies in §5.9)collectively reject adaptation as a population-level mechanismwhile identifying a category-specific channel for non-residentialburglary alone.

Built: 2026-05-11 against v5.2 manuscript.