Model selection to explain individual return rate variability in juvenile king penguins.

Best models are indicated in bold. ΔAIC is the difference of AIC compared to the best model. wi corresponds to the AIC weight and represents the probability of this model being the best among the models presented. k is the number of parameters in the model. ED stands for explained deviance and has been calculated as the ratio of the deviance explained by the model (null deviance – residual deviance) on the null deviance.BC and SSI are the body condition and structural size of the animal before departure. Depart is the residual of BC on the date of departure of the bird. SOIw and SSTw are the Southern Oscillation Index and Sea Surface Temperature averaged on the whole trip for birds having returned and on the 3 years following the departure for those never seen again. SOIy1 was the average of SOI on the first year following departure. SST2m, SSTwint1, SSTy1 were averaged on the first 2 months, the first winter and the first year.SST was averaged on different areas, z1 to z4 corresponding to areas surrounding the different fronts from north to south: z1, sub-tropical front; z2, sub-antarctic front; z3, polar front; z4, marginal ice zone and tot being the whole area from north bounding of z1 to south bounding of z4.