Models of H9 that include H9 data in other hosts compared to the “best” model selected.

1Cragg & Uhler’s method: (1-(L0/Lm)2/N )/1-L02/N; L = likelihood; 0 = intercept-only model; m = full model; N = number of data points.2Mean Squared Prediction Error: sum(y-m)2/N; smaller values indicate better fits; y = observed data; m = mean of predicted data; N = number of points predicted.3Normalized Mean Squared Prediction Error: sum((y-m)/s)2/N; smaller values indicate better fits; y = observed data; m = mean of predicted data; s = standard deviation of predicted data; N = number of points predicted.4Best model covariates: H4 prevalence in all hosts, H6 prevalence in all hosts, H6 prevalence in quail, H9 prevalence in quail, H5 prevalence in all hosts one month in the past.Covariates in other models: DKH9 = H9 prevalence in ducks, QAH9 = H9 prevalence in quail, DKH9+QAH9 = sum of DKH9 and QAH9.