Replication levels, false presences, and the estimation of presence / absence from eDNA metabarcoding data

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is increasingly used to study the present and past biodiversity. eDNA analyses often rely on amplification of very small quantities or degraded DNA. To avoid missing detection of taxa that are actually present (false negatives), multiple extractions and amplifications of the same samples are often performed. However, the level of replication needed for reliable estimates of the presence/absence patterns remains an unaddressed topic. Furthermore, degraded DNA and PCR/sequencing errors might produce false positives. We used simulations and empirical data to evaluate the level of replication required for accurate detection of targeted taxa in different contexts and to assess the performance of methods used to reduce the risk of false detections. Furthermore, we evaluated whether statistical approaches developed to estimate occupancy in the presence of observational errors can successfully estimate true prevalence, detection probability and false-posit...