Data Sheet 1_Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning model for predicting the risk of non-cardiac surgery postoperative heart failure: a multicenter study.docx

BackgroundThis study developed a machine learning model to predict postoperative heart failure (HF) risk in non-cardiac surgery patients.
MethodsUsing data from 489 patients (109 HF cases, 380 controls), the dataset was split 8:2 into training and testing sets, with under-sampling for class imbalance. Eight algorithms were evaluated, with random forest (RF) performing best.
ResultsThe RF model achieved AUROCs of 0.919 (training) and 0.923 (testing), validated externally (AUC = 0.878). SHAP analysis identified key predictors: age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, blood glucose, INR, pulse and serum creatinine (positively associated); serum albumin, MCHC, eGFR and diastolic blood pressure (negatively associated). A web-based tool was developed for clinical use.
ConclusionThe model integrates 10 clinical variables reflecting age, inflammation, renal dysfunction, and hemodynamic instability, enabling preoperative risk stratification and guiding targeted interventions to improve perioperative outcomes.