Data from: Natural coral recovery despite negative population growth

Demographic processes that ensure the recovery and resilience of marine
populations are critical as climate change sends an increasing proportion
on a trajectory of decline. Yet for some populations, recovery potential
remains high. We conducted annual monitoring over 9-years (2012–2020) to
assess the recovery of coral populations belonging to genus Pocillopora.
These populations experienced a catastrophic collapse following a severe
typhoon in 2009. From the start of the monitoring period, high initial
recruitment led to the establishment of a juvenile population that rapidly
transitioned to sexually mature adults, which dominated the population
within six years after the disturbance. As a result, coral cover increased
from 1.1% to 20.2% during this time. To identify key demographic drivers
of recovery and population growth rates (λ), we applied kernel resampled
Integral Projection Models (IPMs), constructing eight successive models to
examine annual change. IPMs were able to capture reproductive traits as
key demographic drivers over the initial 3 years, whilst individual growth
was a continuous key demographic driver throughout the entire monitoring
period. IPMs further detected a pulse of reproductive output subsequent to
two further Category 5 typhoon events during the monitoring period,
exemplifying key mechanisms of resilience for coral populations impacted
by disturbance. Despite rapid recovery, (i.e., increased coral cover,
individual colony growth, low mortality), IPMs estimated predominantly
negative values of λ, indicating a declining population. Indeed, whilst λ
translates to a change in the number of individuals, the recovery of coral
populations can also be driven by an increase in the size of coral
surviving colonies. Our results illustrate that accumulating long-term
data of historical dynamics and applying IPMs to extract demographic
drivers are crucial for future predictions that are based on comprehensive
and robust understandings of ecological change.