Total fertility rate of Iran 1925-2020

In 1925, the total fertility rate of Iran was just over seven children per woman, meaning that the average woman in Iran could expect to have seven children over the course of their reproductive years. The fertility rate would see little change from this figure until the late 1960s, when modernization and significant decreases in child mortality would lead the fertility rate to fall to just over 6.2 in 1975. However, fertility would begin to rise again in the 1980s, as the modernization policies of the Shah would be replaced by Islamic economic and social platforms with the 1979 Islamic Revolution in the country. The total fertility rate in the country would peak at just over 6.5 children per woman in 1985, in response to strong encouragement by the Iranian government promoting larger families to improve Iran’s manpower advantage over Iraq in the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran War. Following the war’s end with a UN-brokered ceasefire in 1988, fertility would fall sharply in the country, falling to 2.4 by the turn of the century, and falling below replacement-level in 2005. However, after bottoming out at 1.82 in 2010, fertility has risen somewhat in recent years, as the Iranian government has rolled out a series of economic incentives aimed at increasing fertility in the country. As a result, in 2020, the total fertility rate in Iran is estimated to have risen slightly, to 2.15 children per woman, above replacement-level.

1925年，伊朗的总生育率仅为每名女性七子以上，这意味着伊朗女性在其生育年限内平均可生育七个孩子。这一生育率在此后的多年中变化甚微，直至1960年代末期，随着现代化进程的推进以及儿童死亡率的显著下降，生育率于1975年降至略高于6.2的水平。然而，在1980年代，随着巴列维王朝的现代化政策被伊斯兰经济和社会纲领所取代，这一趋势在1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命后得到逆转。至1985年，伊朗的总生育率峰值达到每名女性略高于6.5个孩子，这是伊朗政府在1980-1988年伊朗-伊拉克战争中积极鼓励生育以增强对伊拉克的人力优势的回应。1988年，随着联合国斡旋下的停火协议签订，战争结束，伊朗的生育率急剧下降，到世纪之交降至2.4，并在2005年降至更替水平以下。然而，在2010年降至1.82的谷底后，近年来随着伊朗政府推出一系列旨在提高国家生育率的经济激励措施，生育率有所回升。因此，到2020年，伊朗的总生育率预计略有上升，达到每名女性2.15个孩子，略高于更替水平。