Ensemble-weighted parameters.

We propose a new theory of information-based voluntary social distancing in which people’s responses to disease prevalence depend on the credibility of reported cases and fatalities and vary locally. We embed this theory into a new pandemic prediction and policy analysis framework that blends compartmental epidemiological/economic models with Machine Learning. We find that lockdown effectiveness varies widely across US States during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that voluntary social distancing is higher in more informed states, and increasing information could have substantially changed social distancing and fatalities.