Future sea level rise in northwest Mexico is projected to decrease the distribution and habitat quality of the endangered Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot)

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most unequivocal consequences of climate change, yet the implications for shorebirds and their coastal habitats is not well understood, especially outside of the north temperate zone. Here, we show that by the year 2050, SLR has the potential to cause significant habitat loss and reduce the quality of the remaining coastal wetlands in Northwest Mexico—one of the most important regions for Nearctic breeding migratory shorebirds. Specifically, we used species distribution modelling and a moderate SLR static inundation scenario to assess the effects of future SLR on coastal wetlands in Northwest Mexico and the potential distribution of Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot), a threatened long-distance migratory shorebird. Our results suggest that under a moderate SLR scenario, 55% of the current coastal wetland extent in northwest Mexico will be at risk of permanent submergence by 2050, and the high-quality habitat areas that remain will be 20% less suitab..., Study area and model species
C. c. roselaari are long-distance migratory shorebirds that breed in Alaska (USA) and on Wrangel Island (Russia) during the boreal summer and migrate along the Pacific coast to spend their nonbreeding season in NW Mexico (Carmona et al., 2013). Their nonbreeding habitats are restricted to beaches, coastal lagoons, and deltas spanning 32 - 21° N, although incidental records have been recorded further south. The subspecies has an estimated population size of just 21,700 individuals (Lyons et al., 2016) and is thought to be declining, leading them to be listed as threatened and endangered in Canada and Mexico, respectively (COSEWIC, 2007; SEMARNAT, 2010). Due to their small population size, restricted range, high site fidelity, and specialist habitat requirements, C. c. roselaari are expected to be highly vulnerable to SLR and can serve as an umbrella species for other shorebirds that also spend the nonbreeding season in NW Mexico (Muñoz-Salas et al., 2023).
Ou..., , # Data to model potential and future distribution of red knots under a 2050 SLR scenario

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.9cnp5hqsr](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.9cnp5hqsr)

## README

The analysis are divided in three broad sections:

**Species distribution modelling.**

The R script to create the current and future habitat suitability of red knots is called “SpeciesDistributionModelling.R”.

The location data of C. canutus roselaari from which the habitat suitability analysis were derived is called 1._Red_knot_locations.csv. To protect endangered species, coordinate decimal points were rounded up to two decimals.

The environmental predictor rasters used to model the current and future habitat suitability under a sea level scenario are described in the table below:

| **Environmental predictor rasters** | **Description** | **File name** |
| :---------------------------------- | :---------------------------------------...