Mapping the future risk of fire blight: predicting Erwinia amylovora distribution under climate change scenarios

Erwinia amylovora, the cause of fire blight, is a destructive pathogen affecting pome fruits and Rosaceae plants, leading to significant global economic losses. Climate change is expected to alter its distribution, complicating disease control. This study uses geographic information systems (GIS) and species distribution modelling (SDM) with the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method to predict E. amylovora's current and future distributions under changing climates. Data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim were used, with six key variables—bio_1, bio_3, bio_10, bio_11, bio_12 and bio_14—identified as critical for the pathogen's spread. The model showed high accuracy (AUC: 0.9; TSS: 0.75). Current suitable areas include temperate regions like Europe, North America and East Asia. Future projections (2050, 2070) under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios predict shifts in habitat suitability, with some regions becoming more favourable due to warming and others becoming less favourable. Temperature and precipitation were key factors. These findings emphasize the need for proactive management in at-risk areas and provide insights for targeted strategies to mitigate fire blight's spread under climate change.