Climate Change Impacts for 14 Tree Species in Southwest Colorado

Forest management traditionally has been based on expectation of a
steady climate. In the face of a changing climate, management
requires projections of changes in the distribution of the climatic
niche of the major species and strategies for applying the
projections. We prepared climatic habitat models incorporating
heatload as a topographic predictor for the 14 upland tree species
of southwestern Colorado, USA, an area that has already seen
substantial climate impacts. Models were trained with over 800,000
points of known presence and absence. Using 11 climate scenarios for
the decade around 2060, we classified and mapped change for each
species. Projected impacts are extensive. Except for the
low-elevation woodland species, persistent habitat is rare. Most
habitat is lost or threatened and is poorly compensated by emergent
habitat. Three species may be locally extirpated. Nevertheless,
strategies are described that can use the projections to apply
management where it is likely to be most effective, to facilitate or
assist migration, to favor species likely to be suited in the
future, and to identify potential climate refugia.