Duration-Severity and Cumulative Deficit Analyses for Colorado River Streamflow at Lees Ferry

This dataset holds scripts for Duration-Severity and Cumulative Deficit analyses developed to examine the severity of sustained droughts that have impact on storage and water supply in the Colorado River Basin. These analyses were performed using the methods described in Salehabadi, Tarboton et al. (2022; 2020). These studies analyzed the US Bureau of Reclamation Natural flow and Tree Ring Reconstructed flow from Meko et.al., 2017, both at Lees Ferry, using the Duration-Severity and Cumulative Deficit plots, which show the mean flow and cumulative magnitude of departure from average conditions, or “deficit”, for different durations. These plots presented by Salehabadi, Tarboton et al. (2020; 2022) characterize the severity of past droughts that have occurred in the Colorado River Basin. Based on examination of these plots, this study defined three drought scenarios: (1) Millennium Drought, (2) Mid-20th Century Drought, and (3) Paleo Tree Ring Drought. The first two were defined using the US Bureau of Reclamation Natural flows from 2000-2018 and 1953-1977 respectively. The last was defined using the years 1576-1600 from the Meko et al., 2017 tree ring reconstruction of streamflow at Lees Ferry.

- Salehabadi, H., D. G. Tarboton, B. H. Udall, K. G. Wheeler and J. C. Schmidt, (2022), "An Assessment of Potential Severe Droughts in the Colorado River Basin," JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13061.
- Salehabadi, H., D. G. Tarboton, E. Kuhn, B. Udall, K. G. Wheeler, D. E. Rosenberg, S. A. Goeking and J. C. Schmidt, (2020), "The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin," White Paper 4, Future of the Colorado River Project, Center for Colorado River Studies, Utah State University, 71 p., https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/WhitePaper4.pdf.