Climate rather than overgrazing explains most rangeland primary productivity change in Mongolia

Rangelands are Earth’s dominant land type, supporting the livelihoods of
over two billion people. Concerns about rangelands degradation typically
focus on overgrazing. But climate change may be a greater culprit. Using
spatially disaggregated, nationwide data from Mongolia, 1984-2024, we
exploit seasonal variation in grazing locations to quasi-experimentally
estimate the causal effects of livestock herd size, weather, and climate
change on rangeland primary productivity. At interannual frequency, herd
size modestly but significantly negatively affects primary productivity,
with notable variation across agro-ecosystems. The effects of weather
fluctuations are, however, an order of magnitude larger. At decadal scale,
over which herders can adapt to climate change, herd size effects
disappear, and temperature effects dominate. In Mongolia, climate change
seems to drive most long-term change in rangeland primary productivity.