Forecasting of solid waste generation for the Aparecida de Goiânia (GO), Brazil, landfill by time series

ABSTRACT An effective and robust municipal solid-waste-treatment system requires a suitable forecast model to assist in its management. This work was carried out, using time series, an analysis of the projection of solid waste generation in the landfill of Aparecida de Goiânia, located in the State of Goiás. In order to understand the generation of residues, we analyzed the influences exerted by climatic variables and governmental incentives. The model that best fit the studied phenomenon was SARIMA, due to the presence of seasonality in the analyzed time series. As a main result, the forecast for the generation of solid urban waste in Aparecida de Goiânia projected a reduction of the volume produced until 2018. Seasonality in the generation of municipal solid waste does not occur due to the influence of climatic variables. The modeling of municipal solid waste can aid in decision-making and collection management, as well as in contributing to the environmental impacts control.