On the relationship between monthly mean surface temperature and tornado days in the United States npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Correlation was examined between detrended monthly surface temperature and monthly [E]F-1+ tornadoes and tornado days for several contiguous US regions during the period 1954–2022. This relatively simple, yet robust, analysis indicated that regional temperature fluctuations are moderately-to-strongly correlated with tornado days during some months and in certain regions. In general, surface temperatures during boreal cool (warm) season had a positive (negative) correlation with tornado days. Implications for using a continuous, simple scalar variable such as surface temperature for tornado prediction are discussed, as well as the potential utility for understanding changes in tornado frequency due to climate variability and change. Grant no. NA11OAR4320072