Twice Broken: How U.S. Legal Infrastructure Lost the Rule of Law—and the Trust of Markets

Structural Democratic Regression: From Watergate to Trump – Figure 1 Replication Archive This repository contains the data, code, and instructions needed to replicate Figure 1 from our study on democratic erosion in the United States. The figure visualizes structural breaks in regime characteristics using Polity5 and V-Dem indicators, spanning the period from the Watergate scandal (1972–74) through the Trump presidency (2016–21). Our analysis reveals two major inflection points in American democratic structure. The first, catalyzed by Watergate, led to a wave of institutional reforms (e.g., FOIA, FEC, Ethics in Government Act). The second, during the Trump era, saw the collapse of many of these oversight mechanisms. Together, these episodes chart a trajectory of constitutional rot and declining institutional resilience, with measurable impacts on legal infrastructure, investor trust, and democratic governance. 🔧 Included Files vdem_polity5_data.xlsx – Cleaned data combining V-Dem and Polity5 indicators for the U.S. and comparator countries generate_figure1_code.docx – Python code for use in Google Colab to generate Figure 1 README.md – Step-by-step instructions for browser-based execution with no installation required 📊 Methodology Sources: V-Dem 2024 dataset; Polity5 democracy indicators (through 2023) Tools: Python (ruptures, pandas, matplotlib) in Google Colab Framework: Structural break detection, constitutional crisis theory, and rule-of-law decline 📈 Reproducibility This project is designed for open, replicable science. Anyone can run the code using Google Colab in a standard web browser: Upload vdem_polity5_data.xlsx to your Colab environment Copy and paste the code from generate_figure1_code.docx Click “Run” to generate the figure automatically 📚 Citation and Use Please cite the related research paper if you use or adapt these materials. Full citation details will be provided upon publication. Proper attribution to the authors is appreciated. For questions or collaboration inquiries, contact the corresponding author or visit the University of Puerto Rico School of Business for related research outputs.