Monitoring the Future: Restricted-Use Panel Data, United States, 1976-2014

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is a long-term epidemiologic and etiologic study of substance use among the nation's youth and adults. It is conducted at the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research, funded by a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. From its inception in 1975, the project has collected data annually from nationally representative samples of 13,000-19,000 high school seniors, located in approximately 135 schools nationwide (i.e. cross-sectional data). Beginning in 1991, similar surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders have been conducted annually. In all, approximately 45,000 students annually respond to about 100 drug use and demographic questions, as well as to about 200 additional questions divided among multiple forms on other topics such as attitudes toward government, social institutions, race relations, changing gender roles, educational aspirations, occupational aims, and marital plans. The MTF project also includes a longitudinal panel study component. Beginning with the class of 1976, biennial follow-up mail surveys have been conducted with representative subsamples of respondents from each senior year class, spanning modal ages 19 to 30. From each senior year cohort, a sample of about 2,450 students are selected for longitudinal follow-up. The sample is randomly split into two halves (approx. 1,225 each) to be followed every other year. One half-sample begins its first follow-up the next year at modal age 19, and the other half-sample begins its first follow-up in the second year at modal age 20. The follow-ups continue such that the modal ages are as follows: FU1=19/20, FU2=21/22, FU3=23/24, FU4=25/26, FU5=27/28, FU6=29/30. Respondents receive the same survey form for follow-up as they completed at base year. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website - including the purpose, design, sampling procedures, and questionnaire administration; selected data tables and figures; a listing of publications and press releases; information about the research investigators; and links to related websites.

《未来监测》（Monitoring the Future，简称MTF）项目是一项针对全国青少年和成年人物质使用情况进行的长期流行病学和病因学研究。该项目由密歇根大学社会研究所执行，并获得来自国家药物滥用研究所发起的一系列研究基金资助。自1975年启动以来，该项目每年从全国大约135所学校中选取的13,000至19,000名高三学生中收集数据，形成横断面数据。从1991年开始，每年对8年级和10年级的全国代表性样本进行类似的调查。总计，每年约有45,000名学生回答大约100个关于药物使用和人口统计学的问题，以及关于政府态度、社会机构、种族关系、性别角色变化、教育抱负、职业目标和婚姻计划的约200个额外问题。MTF项目还包括一项纵向面板研究。从1976届毕业生开始，对每个高三班级的代表子样本进行了双年后续邮寄调查，涵盖19至30岁之间的典型年龄。从每个高三班级中，选择约2,450名学生进行纵向跟踪。样本随机分为两半（每半约1,225人）以每隔一年进行跟踪。一半样本在典型年龄19岁时开始其第一次跟踪，另一半样本在典型年龄20岁时开始其第一次跟踪。跟踪继续进行，以使典型年龄分别为：FU1=19/20，FU2=21/22，FU3=23/24，FU4=25/26，FU5=27/28，FU6=29/30。受访者将收到与他们在基线年份完成相同的跟踪调查问卷。更多关于MTF项目的信息可以通过Monitoring the Future网站获取，包括目的、设计、抽样程序和问卷管理；选择的数据表和图表；出版物和新闻稿的清单；关于研究调查员的信息；以及相关网站的链接。