Impact Evaluation of the Cash Transfer for Orphan and Vulnerable Children, 2007-2011 - Kenya

Abstract
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Kenya has been seriously affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. It has increased the number of orphans in the country and also the vulnerability of affected households, both through the loss of productive adults and through the impact of chronic illness. In response, the Department of Children's Services (DCS) in the Ministry of Gender, Children and Social Development, with assistance from UNICEF, developed the Cash Transfer Programme for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC). After a small pre-pilot phase, a second larger pilot phase was initiated in seven districts in 2006. At the same time, the Government of Kenya expanded the Programme in other districts to an additional 30. The Programme expanded further in 2008/09, with a total of 30,315 households having received financial support by mid-2009. Additional expansion is planned, the eventual target being to support 100,000 households by 2012.

The objectives of the Programme were clarified as Phase 2 progressed. Its overall objective is to provide a social protection system through regular and predictable cash transfers to families living with OVCs [orphans or vulnerable children] in order to encourage fostering and retention of OVCs within their families and communities, and to promote their human capital development. The latter includes, specifically, to increase enrolment and attendance in basic school; to reduce the rates of mortality and morbidity in children aged five years and under, particularly through increasing the uptake of immunization, growth control and vitamin A supplements; to promote household nutrition and food security; to increase civil registration of children and caregivers; and to improve household knowledge and appropriate case management for individuals with HIV/AIDS through coordination with other service providers.

Geographic coverage
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Regional Coverage.

Analysis unit
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Households, Individuals, Communities

Kind of data
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Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure
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The evaluation took place in the seven districts that had already been identified by the Programme (Kisumu, Migori, Homa Bay, Suba, Nairobi, Garissa and Kwale). In each district, two locations were randomly selected to benefit from the Programme intervention, and two acted as controls. In three districts and one sub-location of Nairobi, the Programme decided to impose conditions with penalties; in the remainder, there was no systematic monitoring of compliance with conditions and no penalties were imposed. For the evaluation, recipient households were sampled from a list supplied by the Programme. Other households were sampled from a household listing undertaken in a random sample of census enumeration areas. A total of 2,759 households were included in the baseline sample; of these, 2,255 were interviewed again at follow-up.

The sample for the quantitative survey consists of four groups:
- Group A Households with OVCs in the Programme areas selected for inclusion in the Programme - divided into two groups; areas with conditions with penalties, and those without;
- Group B Households with OVCs in control areas that were expected to have the met Programme criteria and would therefore (in theory) have been selected by the Programme if the Programme had operated there;
- Group C Households with OVCs in Programme areas that were not selected for inclusion in the Programme; and
- Group D Households with OVCs in control areas that were expected not to have met Programme criteria and would not (in theory) have been selected had the Programme operated there.

Samples were drawn for these four groups of households. Programme recipient households were sampled from a list supplied by the Programme. Households in groups B, C and D (i.e. all except Programme recipients) were sampled from a frame developed through undertaking household listing in a random sample of census enumeration areas (EAs). Census enumeration areas were sampled with probability proportional to population size (PPS). The household listing collected information used to identify OVC households and to classify households as likely to be poor, based on socio-economic information provided by the households. This was used to distinguish the group of poor OVC households that acted as controls (group B). Households from groups C and D provided information on non-beneficiary households; group C households were used to assess Programme targeting.

More detailed information on the sampling process is given in Annex A of the final report of the impact evaluation.

Sampling deviation
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The intended initial total sample size was 3,161 households. Due to the unavailability of the right respondents, a total of 2,759 households were interviewed and included in the baseline sample for analysis (87 per cent). The households were paneled and, when it was possible to trace them, survey teams revisited and interviewed the same households for the follow-up. Some 2,255 of the baseline households were interviewed at follow-up (82 per cent of those interviewed at baseline). The proportion of households that could not be re-interviewed at follow-up was higher in control households. The sample at baseline included a total of 15,464 individuals, of whom 9,231 were children. At follow-up, the sample included 12,959 individuals, of whom 7,532 were children, although not all of these individuals were necessarily included in the baseline survey. The loss of households between the baseline and follow-up survey was higher than had been hoped and was, in part, due to the post-election violence. It could potentially affect the results of the analysis and is discussed in Annex F of the final report of the impact evaluation.

Mode of data collection
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Face-to-face paper [f2f]

摘要
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肯尼亚深受艾滋病/艾滋病病毒（HIV/AIDS）大流行之苦。这不仅增加了国家孤儿的人数，还通过生产性成人的丧失以及慢性疾病的影响，加剧了受影响家庭的社会脆弱性。作为回应，性别、儿童与社会发展部儿童服务部门（儿童服务部）在联合国儿童基金会（UNICEF）的协助下，开发了针对孤儿和易受伤害儿童（OVC）的现金转移计划（CT-OVC）。在经过一小阶段的预试点之后，2006年在七个地区启动了第二阶段的更大规模的试点。与此同时，肯尼亚政府在其他地区将该计划扩展至额外的30个地区。2008/09年，该计划进一步扩展，到2009年中，共有30,315个家庭接受了经济援助。计划将进一步扩展，最终目标是在2012年之前支持10万户家庭。

随着第二阶段的发展，该计划的目标得到了明确。其总体目标是通过定期且可预测的现金转移，为与OVC（孤儿或易受伤害儿童）共同生活的家庭提供社会保护体系，以鼓励家庭和社区内OVC的抚养和保留，并促进其人力资本发展。后者具体包括：提高基础教育入学率和出勤率；降低5岁以下儿童死亡率和发病率，特别是通过增加疫苗接种、生长发育控制和维生素A补充剂的普及率；促进家庭营养和食品安全；提高儿童和照顾者的民事登记率；通过与其他服务提供者的协调，改善家庭对HIV/AIDS患者个体的知识和适当病例管理。

地理覆盖范围
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区域覆盖。

分析单位
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家庭、个人、社区。

数据类型
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样本调查数据（ssd）。

抽样程序
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评估在已经由计划确定的七个地区（基苏木、米戈里、霍马贝、苏巴、内罗毕、加里萨和卡瓦莱）进行。在每个地区，随机选择两个地点以受益于计划干预，另外两个作为对照。在三个地区和内罗毕的一个子地点，计划决定实施带有处罚条件；在其他地区，没有系统地监测对条件的遵守，也没有实施处罚。对于评估，受助家庭从计划提供的名单中抽取样本。其他家庭从在随机抽取的普查人口普查区域（EAs）进行的家庭清单中抽取样本。总共2,759个家庭被纳入基线样本；其中，2,255个家庭在后续调查中再次接受访谈。

定量调查的样本包括四个群体：
- A组：计划区域中纳入计划的OVC家庭，分为两组；带有处罚条件的地区和没有的地区；
- B组：控制区域内有OVC的家庭，预计将满足计划标准，因此（理论上）如果计划在那里运营，将被计划选中；
- C组：计划区域内未纳入计划的OVC家庭；
- D组：控制区域内预计不符合计划标准且如果计划在那里运营则（理论上）不会被选中的OVC家庭。

为这四组家庭抽取了样本。计划受助家庭的样本来自计划提供的名单。B组、C组和D组（即除计划受助家庭外的所有家庭）的样本来自通过在随机抽取的普查人口普查区域（EAs）进行家庭清单编制而开发的框架。人口普查人口普查区域以人口规模成比例的概率（PPS）进行抽样。家庭清单收集的信息用于识别OVC家庭，并根据家庭提供的社会经济信息将家庭分类为可能贫穷的家庭。这被用来区分作为对照的贫穷OVC家庭群体（B组）。C组和D组的家庭提供了非受助家庭的信息；C组家庭用于评估计划的目标。

关于抽样过程的更详细信息见最终影响评估报告的附件A。

抽样偏差
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原计划的总样本量意向为3,161户。由于无法找到合适的受访者，总共对2,759户家庭进行了访谈，并纳入了分析基线样本（87%）。这些家庭被分组，并在可能追踪到它们的情况下，调查团队重新访问并访谈了同一家庭进行后续调查。大约2,255个基线家庭在后续调查中接受了访谈（基线访谈者的82%）。在基线和后续调查之间家庭损失的比例高于预期，部分原因是选举后的暴力事件。这可能会影响分析结果，并在最终影响评估报告的附件F中进行了讨论。

数据收集方式
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面对面纸质调查（f2f）。