Assessing seasonal geohazard risk related to precipitation on traditional villages under climate change: a region-level analysis of southwest Yunnan, China

The geohazard risks of traditional villages are seasonally differentiated, yet the spatial-temporal distribution pattern of the risks has not been effectively assessed. This study aims to provide an analysis example for seasonal risk assessment and therefore to promote evidence-based risk prevention. We constructed a comprehensive risk assessment framework and quantitatively assessed the spatiotemporal risk dynamics for 98 traditional villages in southwest Yunnan, China. The framework integrated 12 indicators across 3 dimensions, including hazard, exposure and vulnerability. To characterize seasonality, four seasons were delineated (I: March-May, II: June-August, III: September-November, IV: December-February). The findings show that: (1) Temporally, the season II has the highest comprehensive risk, followed by the season III, I and IV, with 31%, 17%, 12% and 3% of villages at high risk level, respectively. (2) Spatially, the high-risk villages are predominantly in the western and northern regions. Differently, the southern and eastern regions exhibit significantly greater overall risk during seasons II and III compared to seasons I and IV, due to intense precipitation hazard. (3) With jurisdiction over a large number of villages, about 33% of counties face persistent high risk in all seasons. The study provides decision-making foundations for temporally targeted geohazard prevention in traditional villages.