Bayesian estimation of fossil phylogenies and the evolution of early to middle Paleozoic crinoids (Echinodermata)

Knowledge of phylogenetic relationships among species is fundamental to understanding basic patterns in evolution and underpins nearly all research programs in biology and paleontology. However, most methods of phylogenetic inference typically used by paleontologists do not accommodate the idiosyncrasies of fossil data and therefore do not take full advantage of the information provided by the fossil record. The advent of Bayesian ‘tip-dating’ approaches to phylogeny estimation is especially promising for paleosystematists because time-stamped comparative data can be combined with probabilistic models tailored to accommodate the study of fossil taxa. Under a Bayesian framework, the recently developed fossilized birth–death (FBD) process provides a more realistic tree prior model for paleontological data that accounts for macroevolutionary dynamics, preservation, and sampling when inferring phylogenetic trees containing fossils. In addition, the FBD tree prior allows for the possibility ...