Air temperatures overpredict changes to stream fish assemblages with climate warming compared to water temperatures

Studies predicting how the distribution of aquatic organisms will shift with climate change often use projected increases in air temperature or water temperature. However, the assumed correlations between water temperature change and air temperature change can be problematic, especially for mountainous, high elevation streams. Using stream fish assemblage data from 1,442 surveys across a mountain - plains gradient (Wyoming, USA; 1990-2018), we compared the responsiveness of thermal guilds, native status groups, and assemblage structure to projected climate warming from generalized air temperature models and stream-specific water temperature models. Air temperature models consistently predicted greater range shift differences between warm-water and cold-water species, with air temperatures predicting greater increases in occurrence and greater range expansions for warm-water species. The “over-prediction” of warm-water species expansions resulted in air temperature models predicting high...