Presidential Elections and European Party Systems (1848-2020)

Political scientists have long been concerned that a popularly elected presidency may destabilize competitive party systems. We develop and test a new theory holding that the impact is more immediate and severe than previously assumed. Coexisting legislative and presidential coalitions first and foremost impede the evolution of predictable party interactions on the executive level—i.e., the domain of the cabinet. This quality has become accessible for comparative research thanks to the concept of party-system closure. Using a new dataset of all European democracies since 1848, we show that the popular election of the president undermines party-system closure in two ways: by confounding patterns of government formation (notably under powerful presidencies), and by disturbing electoral/legislative politics, which in turn affect executive politics. The former, direct effect emerges dominant from a series of panel analyses and case illustrations. These findings have important implications for current problems of constitutional design and institutional reform.