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Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction

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NBER2013-03-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
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https://www.nber.org/papers/w18870
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Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of
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2013-03-01
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