Macroeconomic Stars

<b>Summary:</b> <br>Quarterly time series (starting in 1959Q4) of estimates of macroeconomic stars and output gap. <br><br>These estimates of stars and other model objects were developed using a semi-structural model to jointly estimate “stars” — long-run levels of output (its growth rate), the unemployment rate, the real interest rate, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. It features links between survey expectations and stars, time-variation in macroeconomic relationships, and stochastic volatility. Survey data help discipline stars’ estimates and have been crucial in estimating a high-dimensional model since the pandemic. The model has desirable real-time properties, competitive forecasting performance, and superior fit to the data compared to variants without the empirical features mentioned above. <br><br>The paper that developed the model is available from the Working Paper Series of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars. <br><br>For the historical real-time archives: https://github.com/zamansaeed/macrostars/<br><br><b>Citation:<br></b>To learn more about the data and the model, see:<br>Zaman, Saeed. 2024. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars." Working Paper No. 21-23R2. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202123r2.<br><br><b>JEL Codes</b><br>C5, E4, E31, E24, O4<br><br><b>File Description:<br></b>Each vintage includes the posterior mean, 68% and 90% Credible Intervals for:<br>U-star: long-run level of unemployment rateR-star: long-run real rate of interestPi-star: long-run level of price inflationP-star: long-run level of productivity growthW-star: long-run level of nominal wage inflationG-star: growth rate of potential outputOutput Gap: cyclical assessment of the US economy Persistence in price inflation (gap)Persistence in nominal wage inflation (gap)Slope of the price Phillips CurveSlope of the wage Phillips CurveShort-run passthrough from prices to wagesWedge: between W-star and (P-star + Pi-star)D: the catch all component in R-star equationStochastic volatility price inflation gapStochastic volatility nominal wage inflation gapStochastic volatility labor productivity gapStochastic volatility interest rate gapStochastic volatility output gapStochastic volatility UR gap<b>Disclaimer:</b><br>These data are updated by the authors and are not an official product of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.<br><br><br><b>Latest Estimates of Stars (and the output gap):<br></b>-- based on US data through 2025Q3, updated January 8th, 2026, after the release of labor productivity data<br><br>In bold is the (posterior) Mean estimate and in parentheses 68% coverage Interval:<br><br><b>U-star </b>(long-run level of unemployment rate):<b> </b><b>4.5%</b> (4.1% to 4.9%)<br><br><b>R-star</b> (long-run real rate of interest): <b>1.3%</b> (0.6% to 2.0%)<br><br><b>Pi-star</b> (long-run level of price inflation): <b>2.3% </b> (1.8% to 2.8%)<br><br><b>P-star </b>(long-run level of productivity growth): <b>2.1% </b> (1.4% to 2.7%)<br><br><b>W-star </b>(long-run level of nominal wage inflation): <b>3.7%</b> (3.3% to 4.1%)<br><br><b>G-star </b>(growth rate of potential output): <b>2.9%</b> (2.6% to 3.2%)<br><br><b>Output Gap </b>(cyclical assessment of the US economy): <b>+0.2%</b> (-0.8% to +1.1%)<br><br>Next update: May 8th, 2026.<br><br><br><br><br>