Relative change in stream discharge from a tropical watershed improves predictions of fecal bacteria in near-shore environments

Statistical models poorly predict bacteria in near-shore environments of tropical islands due to inaccuracies in runoff and discharge characterization of storm events. Intense, short duration storms on small, steeply sloped watersheds produce high rates of runoff, resulting in rapid pulses of discharge that influence the physical and physiological conditions of the fate and transport of pathogens. As such, increasing rates of discharge are expected to have a different influence on sediment transport and pathogen load compared to decreasing rates of discharge. Regression modeling was used to examine the affect of antecedent streamflow on the interaction between environmental parameters and two fecal indicator bacteria, enterococci and <i>Clostridium perfringens</i>. Including the relative change in discharge incorporates a proximate representation of the energy available to transport particulates, improving predictions of near-shore water quality. Understanding factors that influence pathogen loads improves management of watersheds and protects public health.