Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Logistics Transportation Structure Transformation and Traffic Congestion: Evidence from 45 Major Chinese Cities 2015-2021

This study used kernel density estimation and Markov chain analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and internal transformation mechanisms of logistics transportation structure transformation and traffic congestion in 45 major cities in China from 2015 to 2021. The research results indicate that: (a) In terms of time, the upgrading of logistics transportation structure - manifested as an increase in the railway ratio of passenger transport (railway passenger volume relative to road) and freight transport (railway freight volume relative to road) - showed sustained growth during the observation period, while traffic congestion showed marginal relief. Both phenomena exhibit regional heterogeneity characteristics. (b) In terms of space, the transformation of logistics structure and traffic congestion have led to a club convergence pattern, which limits short-term cross cluster mobility. Specifically, the logistics structure hierarchy of eastern and central cities is on the rise, while western cities are regressing to lower tier cities. On the contrary, the level of traffic congestion in eastern and central cities tends to decrease, while the level of traffic congestion in western regions intensifies.