National Accounts - Quarterlies June 2019 Data Collection

Gross domestic product: June 2019 quarter – revisions We incorporated some revisions in this release. Revisions are usually driven by new or improved data that affect historical results, or changes to the underlying measurement methods. In both cases we aim to better represent the real-life situation of a changing society, economy, and environment. The key revisions are discussed below: • Incorporation of revised national population series to incorporate new migration measures • Balance of payments annual revisions • Interpolation • other revisions. Incorporation of revised national population series Stats NZ released a new outcomes-based measure of migration in November 2018. From the December 2018 quarter, the outcomes based migration measure has been used to produce the quarterly national population estimates. In the recent National population estimates: At 30 June 2019 release, the historical population series has been revised back to the September 2013 quarter using the outcomes based migration data. This revised data has affected the following series: • Per capita measures of GDP and RGNDI • Low level components of GDP(P), Per capita measures are calculated by dividing the relevant quarterly series by the estimated resident population of New Zealand. Implementing the outcomes based migration measure has resulted in a downward revision to New Zealand's estimated resident population of about 50,000 over the period September 2013 quarter to June 2019 quarter (see Media release: New Zealand's population growth 1.6 percent in June year). This has resulted in upward revisions to GDP per capita and RGNDI per capita levels over the period 2013-2019. Please note that revisions to GDP per capita and RGNDI per capita also reflect revisions from seasonal adjustment and updates to input data. The revised population estimates have increased the levels of these per capita measures by about 1.0% over the six-year period. However, there is only a minor impact on quarterly and annual movements in GDP per capita and RGNDI per capita. National population estimates are also an input into the following components of GDP(P): • Water Supply in Electricity, gas, waste and water services; and • Private households employing staff in Arts and recreation. However, the impact of the population estimates revisions was negligible on the levels and quarterly and annual movements of published series for the Electricity, gas, waste and water services, and Arts and recreation industries. Balance of payments annual revisions We incorporated balance of payments annual revisions this quarter. These revisions mostly applied to the expenditure measure of GDP (GDE), particularly to exports and imports of services, household consumption expenditure, and other expenditure components. 2019 revisions to balance of payments and national accounts These revisions are normal practice in June quarters, and ensure that we are in line with international best practice. Interpolation For areas of the economy that have annual data but lack a quarterly indicator, we use an algorithm, called interpolation, to estimate quarterly movements from an annual benchmark. Annual benchmarks used for the quarterly GDP release are typically for years ended March. Therefore, the June 2019 quarter is the first quarter for the March 2020 year. When a new March year is entered, interpolation re-estimates quarterly movements, which can result in minor revisions. Other revisions Financial intermediation services indirectly measured Updated input data for financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) resulted in revisions to financial and insurance services in the production measure of GDP, and in the expenditure measure of GDP. Wholesale trade survey revisions Wholesale trade survey: June 2019 quarter revisions for the other goods wholesaling industry for the September 2016 to March 2019 quarters has flowed through and caused revisions to the wholesale trade industry in the production measure. Manufacturing revisions Economic survey of manufacturing: June 2019 quarter revisions for several manufacturing industries for the September 2016 to March 2019 quarters has flowed through and caused revisions to the manufacturing industry in the production measure. Local authority statistics annual benchmarking We also incorporated revisions due to local authority statistics annual benchmarking and other quality improvements (see Local authority statistics: June 2019 quarter). These revisions impact local government expenditure in the expenditure measure of GDP, and local government administration in the production measure. Other revisions due to updated indicator data We made other revisions due to updated source data. Incorporating updated source data as it becomes available is a normal process, as it better reflects what is going on in the economy. We received updated respondent information and other source data, causing revisions to: • agriculture, forestry, and fishing • mining • manufacturing • electricity, gas, water, and waste services • telecommunications • rental, hiring and real estate services • exports and imports • gross fixed capital formation • household consumption expenditure. Revisions to inventories Inventories revised due to the process of reconciling inventory changes with the rest of the economy. This process minimises timing and valuation issues. Revisions tables The following table shows previously published and revised quarterly movements for the September 2016–March 2019 quarters’ GDP and expenditure on GDP (GDE). Previously published and revised quarterly movements GDP GDE Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter Previously published Revised Previously published Revised December 2015 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 March 2016 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 June 2016 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 September 2016 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 December 2016 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 March 2017 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 June 2017 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 September 2017 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 December 2017 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 March 2018 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 June 2018 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 September 2018 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 December 2018 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 March 2019 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 Source: Stats NZ The following table shows previously published and revised quarterly movements for the September 2013–March 2019 quarters’ GDP per capita and RGNDI per capita. Previously published and revised quarterly movements GDP per capita RGNDI per capita Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter Previously published Revised Previously published Revised September 2013 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.8 December 2013 -0.2 -0.1 1.4 1.5 March 2014 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 June 2014 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 September 2014 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 December 2014 0.9 1.0 -0.7 -0.6 March 2015 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.5 June 2015 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 September 2015 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 December 2015 0.4 0.4 -0.8 -0.7 March 2016 0.6 0.6 2.4 2.3 June 2016 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 September 2016 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 December 2016 -0.2 -0.1 1.3 1.3 March 2017 0.2 0.3 -0.5 -0.5 June 2017 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 September 2017 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 December 2017 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 March 2018 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 June 2018 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 September 2018 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 December 2018 0.2 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 March 2019 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 Source: Stats NZ en-NZ