Data from: Quantifying past and present connectivity illuminates a rapidly changing landscape for the African elephant

There is widespread concern about impacts of land-use change on
connectivity among animal and plant populations, but those impacts are
difficult to quantify. Moreover, lack of knowledge regarding ecosystems
before fragmentation may obscure appropriate conservation targets. We use
occurrence and population genetic data to contrast connectivity for a
long-lived mega-herbivore over historical and contemporary time frames. We
test whether (i) historical gene flow is predicted by persistent landscape
features rather than human settlement, (ii) contemporary connectivity is
most affected by human settlement and (iii) recent gene flow estimates
show the effects of both factors. We used 16 microsatellite loci to
estimate historical and recent gene flow among African elephant (Loxodonta
africana) populations in seven protected areas in Tanzania, East Africa.
We used historical gene flow (FST and G'ST) to test and optimize
models of historical landscape resistance to movement. We inferred
contemporary landscape resistance from elephant resource selection,
assessed via walking surveys across ~15 400 km2 of protected and
unprotected lands. We used assignment-based recent gene flow estimates to
optimize and test the contemporary resistance model, and to test a
combined historical and contemporary model. We detected striking changes
in connectivity. Historical connectivity among elephant populations was
strongly influenced by slope but not human settlement, whereas
contemporary connectivity was influenced most by human settlement. Recent
gene flow was strongly influenced by slope but was also correlated with
contemporary resistance. Inferences across multiple timescales can better
inform conservation efforts on large and complex landscapes, while
mitigating the fundamental problem of shifting baselines in conservation.