Comparison of the premature death probability and disease burden of major chronic diseases along with their changing trends between residents in chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas and non-demonstration areas in Jinan from 2013 to 2023

ObjectiveTo compare the premature death probability and disease burden of major chronic diseases along with their changing trends among residents in chronic disease comprehensive control and prevention demonstration areas (demonstration areas) and non-demonstration areas in Jinan city, thus providing a basis for improving the residents′ health. MethodsUsing mortality data from three demonstration areas and three non-demonstration areas in Jinan, 2013 – 2023, we compared and analyzed age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), premature mortality probability, and standardized years of life lost (YLL) rates of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), malignant tumors, chronic respiratory diseases (CRD), and diabetes mellitus (DM). The changing trends were assessed based on the average annual percentage change (AAPC). ResultsThe demonstration areas had higher average ASMR and standardized YLL rates of CVD, malignant tumors, and the four major chronic diseases and lower average ASMR and standardized YLL rates of CRD and DM than the non-demonstration areas. Significant declining trends were observed for the ASMR of CVD (AAPC = –1.33%, 95%CI: –2.21% to –0.46%), malignant tumors (AAPC = –3.33%, 95%CI: –4.47% to –2.18%), CRD (AAPC = –6.69%, 95%CI: –8.29% to –5.07%), and the four major chronic diseases (AAPC = –2.22%, 95%CI: –2.94% to –1.50%) as well as the standardized YLL rates of CVD (AAPC = –1.66%, 95%CI: –2.50% to –0.81%), malignant tumors (AAPC = –3.96%, 95%CI: –5.23% to –2.68%), CRD (AAPC = –7.41%, 95%CI: –9.12% to –5.67%), and the four major chronic diseases (AAPC = –2.73%, 95%CI: –3.42% to –2.04%), with greater declines in the demonstration areas. The demonstration areas had higher average annual premature death probabilities of malignant tumors and the four major chronic diseases and lower average annual premature death probabilities of CVD, CRD, and DM than the non-demonstration areas. Reductions in premature death probability were observed for CVD (AAPC = –1.70%, 95%CI: –2.57% to –0.82%), malignant tumors (AAPC = –3.60%, 95%CI: –4.80% to –2.39%), CRD (AAPC = –5.81%, 95%CI: –7.90% to –3.68%), and the four major chronic diseases (AAPC = –2.56%, 95%CI: –3.36% to –1.75%), with greater declines in the demonstration areas. ConclusionsThe establishment of demonstration areas in Jinan has significantly reduced premature death burden from CVD, malignant tumors, and CRD. These interventions have shown pronounced benefits for the people aged 30–69. Nevertheless, the prevention and control of DM still need to be strengthened.