Nest survival, female survival, and average covariates used in modeling, along with metadata

Females must balance physiological and behavioral demands of producing
offspring with associated expenditures, such as resource acquisition and
predator avoidance. Nest success is an important parameter underlying
avian population dynamics. Galliforms are particularly susceptible to low
nest success due to exposure of ground nests to multiple predator guilds,
lengthy incubation periods, and substantive reliance on crypsis for
survival. Hence, it is plausible that nesting individuals prioritize
productivity and survival differently, resulting in a gradient of
reproductive strategies. Fine-scale movement patterns during incubation
are not well documented in ground-nesting birds, and the influence of
reproductive movements on survival is largely unknown. Using GPS data
collected from female wild turkeys (n = 278) across the southeastern
United States, we evaluated the influence of incubation recess behaviors
on tradeoffs between nest and female survival. We quantified daily recess
behaviors including recess duration, recess frequency, total distance
traveled, and incubation range size for each nest attempt as well as
covariates for nest concealment, nest attempt, and nest age. Of 374 nests,
91 (24%) hatched and 39 (14%) females were depredated during incubation.
Average nest survival during the incubation period was 0.19, whereas
average female survival was 0.78. On average, females took 1.6 daily
unique recesses (SD = 1.2), spent 2.1 hrs off the nest each day (SD =
1.8), and traveled 357.6 m during recesses (SD = 396.6). Average nest
concealment was 92.5 cm (SD = 47). We found that females who took longer
recess bouts had higher individual survival, but had increased nest loss.
Females who recessed more frequently had lower individual survival. Our
findings suggest behavioral decisions made during incubation represent
life-history tradeoffs between predation risk and reproductive success on
an unpredictable landscape.