The influence of climate and paleoclimate on distributions of global conifer clades depends on geographic range size

Aim: We investigate how plant distributions are shaped by current and paleoclimate regimes. We specifically use global conifer biodiversity to test if paleoclimatic signatures are stronger in range-restricted taxa compared to widespread taxa. 

Location: Global

Taxon: Coniferales

Methods: We combine global geographic occurrences for 606 conifer species and 69 conifer genera with climate information (modern day and paleoclimate) to examine predictors of current conifer distribution. We test how climate predicts richness of range-restricted taxa and influences turnover of widespread taxa using generalized dissimilarity models and a zeta diversity framework. We also construct ensemble distribution models to test if paleoclimates differentially influence the current distribution of range-restricted versus widespread taxa.    

Results: Generalized dissimilarity models suggest that paleoclimatic variation in precipitation and temperature are associated with differences in richness ...