Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensification Prediction using High Resolution All-sky GOES Satellite Data Assimilation

Prediction of significant changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, particularly the early-stage initial 14 intensification, have been a long-standing challenge. Because most tropical cyclones are born and develop over 15 tropical oceans with limited in-situ observation networks and infrequent low Earth orbiting satellite 16 overpasses, geostationary satellite observations often provide the sole source of information on the TC 17 lifecycle. This study examines the impact of assimilating radiances in clear and cloudy regions from the latest 18 generation of NOAA’s geostationary satellites (GOES-16) on the prediction of tropical cyclone intensification 19 onset in the 2017 hurricane season. It is found that assimilation of all-sky satellite radiances made a significant 20 contribution to the forecast improvement of early-stage tropical cyclone intensification onset. This study 21 highlights the potential for all-sky satellite radiance assimilation to improve the representation of the inner22 core structures of tropical cyclones, resulting in more accurate prediction.