Non-residential construction spending forecast in the U.S. 2024-2025

Based on short-term projections, the U.S. non-residential construction market is expected to increase by approximately four percent in 2023. That year, growth is expected to be the highest in the industrial construction segment, with a year-on-year change of 8.9 percent. Offices were the buildings with the highest expected decrease, with its growth rate for 2024 forecast at -1.7 percent. The value of private non-residential buildings put in place in the U.S. remained stable between 2019 and 2021, but it has risen in the years after that. That was similar to how public non-residential construction has evolved, which also had a noticeable growth in 2023. Non-residential construction marketThere are various drivers that impact the non-residential construction market and can be highly dependent on the sector. Demand for leisure travel is expected to increase due to low unemployment and income growth, projecting a promising lodging construction market. The growth in the office building market is largely being guided by corporate relocations and the lack of vacant spaces in major metropolitans. The overall commercial construction market has received increased spending due to growth in e-commerce, gas prices, and interest rates.Industrial real estate receives most investmentDuring the past years, the value of investment in commercial real estate in the U.S. has been on the decline. That has affected industrial and office real estate the most, which were also the segments of the commercial real estate industry with the highest investment. Offices received the most investment in 2019, but it was below the industrial and retail segments in 2023. Part of the reason might be that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, working from home has become a popular option, reducing the need for more office space for certain companies.

基于短期预测，美国非住宅建筑市场预计在2023年将增长约四个百分点。当年，增长速度最高的将是工业建筑领域，年同比增长率预计达到8.9%。办公楼预计将出现最大降幅，其2024年的增长率预计为-1.7%。美国私人非住宅建筑物的建设价值在2019年至2021年之间保持稳定，但此后逐年上升。这一趋势与公共非住宅建筑的发展轨迹相似，公共非住宅建筑在2023年也实现了显著增长。非住宅建筑市场受到多种驱动因素的影响，且这些因素高度依赖于特定行业。由于失业率低和收入增长，休闲旅游需求预计将增加，预计将推动住宿建筑市场的蓬勃发展。办公楼市场的增长主要受到企业搬迁和主要都市地区空置空间短缺的推动。整体商业建筑市场因电子商务、燃气价格和利率的增长而获得更多投资。在过去的几年中，美国商业房地产的投资价值一直在下降，这主要影响了工业和办公房地产，它们也是商业房地产行业中投资最高的领域。2019年，办公楼获得了最多的投资，但在2023年，其投资额低于工业和零售领域。部分原因可能是，自COVID-19大流行爆发以来，远程办公已成为一种流行的工作方式，减少了某些公司对更多办公空间的需求。