Replication data for: Brokering rivalry through time: Vietnam's strategic sequencing as a constrained middle power

The concept of middle power hedging is ubiquitous but risks becoming conceptually vacuous without an appropriate operationalization of conflicting signals. The current literature has instead focused on the content of hedging, commonly captured through concepts of diversification and commitment, with little attention paid to the temporal dimension through which this is communicated and interpreted. I argue, however, that such neglect is not incidental and instead propose timing as a strategic tool. To this end, this paper introduces the concept of ‘temporal brokerage’ to operationalize how geography- and regime-constrained states (bounded middle powers) manage conflicting signals within the context of great power rivalry. This is illustrated through an investigation into Vietnam’s “double upgrade” with China and the US in 2023. Over a 94-day period, Vietnam upgraded its relations with the US to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and subsequently invited Xi Jinping for a state visit. Using 50 diplomatic events, this paper demonstrates how Vietnam strategically deployed capability-seeking and assurance-giving signals to alleviate zero-sum perceptions in an escalating rivalry. The findings reveal Vietnam’s “Bamboo Diplomacy” as an observable and mechanistic strategy, one that can be generalized as an approach to bounded middle power foreign policy under similar structural constraints.