Assessing leopard (Panthera pardus) occupancy and management strategies in the urbanizing landscape

The leopard (Panthera pardus) is a highly adaptable apex predator capable of persisting across diverse habitats, including human-dominated landscapes. However, rapid urbanization, habitat fragmentation, and increasing human-wildlife conflicts threaten its survival. In densely populated regions of Nepal, particularly the Kathmandu Valley, leopards frequently interact with humans, often leading to conflict situations. Despite these interactions, empirical information on leopard distribution and habitat use in the valley remains limited. This study applied single-season occupancy modelling to assess leopard occupancy and identify factors influencing habitat use in the Kathmandu Valley. Sign surveys were conducted from May to September 2023 across 51 grid cells (4 × 4 km²). Indirect evidence of leopard presence, including pugmarks, scrapes, and scats, was recorded along 1 km transects, each divided into five 200 m segments. The study estimated a naive occupancy of 0.62, indicating that leopards are relatively widespread and capable of persisting in peri-urban landscapes. The top-ranked model (AIC weight = 0.73) identified human population density, distance to settlements, and distance to rivers as the most important predictors of leopard occupancy. Occupancy increased with human density and distance from settlements, suggesting that leopards do not entirely avoid humans but adjust their spatial use in response to human activity. Proximity to rivers also emerged as a key attractant. Detection probability was strongly influenced by prey and livestock availability, highlighting their role in sustaining leopard populations and influencing detectability. These findings emphasize the importance of community awareness programs and improved forest management to enhance public understanding of leopard ecology and reduce human-leopard conflict while maintaining adequate natural prey with minimizing human presence within human-modified landscapes.