Estimation of Climate Change Influence on Poultry Production in Nigeria

Poultry farming is at risk of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change effect. Hence, this study examined the estimation of climate change influence on poultry production in Nigeria. It is apparent that climate change has become a global phenomenon. In Nigeria, the prospect is that climate change will have adverse impact, not only as a result of anticipated warming and erratic rainfall patterns, but due to vulnerability of poultry birds. Its effect on poultry production will be of great magnitude, affect the growth, adaptation and production of poultry egg and meat. This study estimates the trends of poultry meat and egg production in Nigeria from 2009 to 2020, using Ordinary Least Square model. The study estimates that the annual growth rate of poultry meat and egg, between 2009 and 2020 to be 3.12% and 3.93% respectively, Durbin-Watson estimates (1.5; 1.3) obtained for poultry meat and egg production respectively (signify that the test is inconclusive; however, absence of autocorrelation is an indication that the OLS coefficients or parameter estimates are statistically unbiased and gives credibility to the data) indicate the positive correlation and acceptability. Poultry meat (0.002) and egg (0.0008) were found to be statistically significant at 1% probability value. The result shows that precipitation was significant at 1% for poultry meat, while precipitation is significant at 5% for poultry egg production. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test presents the suitability of OLS for the study. Also, the study extensively elaborates on the possible adaptation strategies to climate change as a means of curbing and sustaining poultry farming in Nigeria. Conclusively, policy implications necessary to counteract the adverse impacts of climate change in poultry farming that can foster sustained productivity increases were proffered. This includes, embarking on enlightenment campaigns on climate change adaptation strategies so as to facilitate the adoption of appropriate poultry management practices.