Coastal Flooding – Future (2130 SSP2 4.5M)

This dataset presents the extent of static coastal inundation under possible future sea level rise scenarios for multiple Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) events, and depth for a 1%AEP. The mapping identifies low-lying areas susceptible to flooding from elevated sea levels due to tides, storm surge, and projected sea level rise. Covers nine coastal inundation cells: Waimea Inlet Tāhunanui Rocks Road Nelson CBD Nelson Haven Boulder Bank to Pepin Island Delaware Bay estuary Delaware open coast Oananga Bay Mapping is based on elevation only and does not reflect flow paths or wave effects. Finalised April 2026, based on 2025 LiDAR and 2020-2024 modelling. Developed by Tonkin & Taylor Ltd for Nelson City Council and recorded as Nelson Coastal Inundation Mapping Update, Phase B (v1), December 2024 and Addendum, April 2026. Derived from 2025 LiDAR data and NIWA (2018) storm tide levels. Mapping uses a bathtub approach and does not account for overland flow paths, engineered structures, or future shoreline changes.本数据集涵盖多种年超越概率（Annual Exceedance Probability, AEP）情景下，未来海平面上升可能引发的静态海岸淹没范围，以及1%年超越概率事件对应的淹没水深。本次测绘识别了受潮汐、风暴潮及预估海平面上升导致的海平面升高影响，易遭受洪涝的低洼区域，共涵盖9个海岸淹没分区：怀梅阿湾（Waimea Inlet）、塔胡南努罗克斯路（Tāhunanui Rocks Road）、纳尔逊中央商务区（Nelson CBD）、纳尔逊港（Nelson Haven）、博尔德班克至佩平岛区域（Boulder Bank to Pepin Island）、特拉华湾河口（Delaware Bay estuary）、特拉华开放海岸（Delaware open coast）以及奥南加湾（Oananga Bay）。本次测绘仅基于高程数据开展，未考虑径流路径或波浪作用影响。本数据集最终定稿于2026年4月，基于2025年激光雷达（LiDAR）数据与2020-2024年的模拟模型构建，由汤金泰勒有限公司为纳尔逊市议会开发，相关成果命名为《纳尔逊海岸淹没测绘更新 第二阶段（版本1）》（2024年12月）及2026年4月补编，其数据衍生自2025年激光雷达数据与新西兰国家水与大气研究所（NIWA）2018年发布的风暴潮位数据。本次测绘采用浴缸式淹没模型，未考虑陆上径流路径、工程构筑物或未来海岸线变化。