Trend in Global Black Carbon Emissions from 1960 to 2007

Black
carbon (BC) plays an important role in both climate change
and health impact. Still, BC emissions as well as the historical trends
are associated with high uncertainties in existing inventories. In
the present study, global BC emissions from 1960 to 2007 were estimated
for 64 sources, by using recompiled fuel consumption and emission
factor data sets. Annual BC emissions had increased from 5.3 (3.4–8.5
as an interquartile range) to 9.1 (5.6–14.4) teragrams during
this period. Our estimations are 11–16% higher than those in
previous inventories. Over the period, we found that the BC emission
intensity, defined as the amount of BC emitted per unit of energy
production, had decreased for all the regions, especially China and
India. Improvements in combustion technology and changes in fuel composition
had led to an increase in energy use efficiency, and subsequently
a decline of BC emission intensities in power plants, the residential
sector, and transportation. On the other hand, the BC emission intensities
had increased in the industrial and agricultural sectors, mainly due
to an expansion of low-efficiency industry (coke and brick production)
in developing countries and to an increasing usage of diesel in agriculture
in developed countries.

碳黑（BC）在气候变化及健康影响方面扮演着至关重要的角色。然而，BC的排放量及其历史趋势在现有的清单中均伴随着较高的不确定性。在本研究中，我们利用重新编译的燃料消耗和排放系数数据集，对1960年至2007年间的全球BC排放进行了估算，涉及64个排放源。在此期间，年度BC排放量从5.3（四分位距为3.4–8.5）增加至9.1（四分位距为5.6–14.4）太克。与先前的清单相比，我们的估算结果高出11–16%。在此期间，我们发现BC排放强度，即单位能源生产所排放的碳黑量，在所有地区均有下降，尤其是中国和印度。燃烧技术的改进及燃料组成的变更导致了能源使用效率的提高，进而导致电力、住宅和交通部门BC排放强度的降低。另一方面，工业和农业部门的BC排放强度有所上升，这主要归因于发展中国家低效率产业（如焦炭和砖块生产）的扩张以及发达国家农业中柴油使用量的增加。