Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia

ABSTRACT This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.