2010-2030中国主要作物（小麦、玉米）未来物候和产量变化预测

本数据集采用多模式、多情景的气候预估数据，结合校准后的DSSAT-CERES-Wheat/Maize模型预测了2030s(2011-2040)三个情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下中国10个小麦种植区和4个玉米种植区小麦、玉米开花期和成熟期的变化，实现了0.5°×0.5°分辨率输出，可为保障粮食安全和促进农业可持续发展提供重要参考。

This dataset adopts multi-model and multi-scenario climate projection data. Combined with the calibrated DSSAT-CERES-Wheat/Maize model, it predicts the changes in flowering and maturity dates of wheat and maize in 10 wheat-growing regions and 4 maize-growing regions across China under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios for the 2030s (2011–2040), with an output resolution of 0.5°×0.5°. This dataset can provide important references for ensuring food security and promoting sustainable agricultural development.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集预测了2010-2030年中国小麦和玉米的物候及产量变化，基于多模式气候情景和校准的作物模型，覆盖多个种植区并提供高分辨率输出。它旨在为粮食安全和农业可持续发展提供科学参考，数据以栅格格式存储，便于空间分析应用。