Lightning-caused fire modeling data for Uden et al. (2026)

This repository contains:

Data used to drive lightning prediction, ignition efficiency, and lightning-caused fire probability models from Uden et al., 2026 A paleoclimate-compatible framework for modeling lightning-caused ignition probability in Alaska

Code used to generate this data can be found on Github under the version tag v1.0 (https://github.com/charliuden/Lightning-Fire-Models-Uden-2026/releases/tag/v1.0).

Contents:

model_drivers/

lightning_prediction_drivers_xxxx_xxxx.csv : used to train the lightning prediction models

Ignition_efficiency_drivers_xxxx_xxxx.csv : used to train the ignition efficiency models

Fire_probability_daily_drivers_2002_2011.parquet : parquet file containing daily climate, fuel moisture, and land cover predictors for  ignition efficiency and fire probability on a continuous 0.25x0.25 grid for Alaska

Fire_probability_seasonal_drivers_2002_2011.parquet : parquet file containing summer climate summaries for predicting lightning strike rate and fire probability on continuous 0.25x0.25 grid for Alaska

Observed_binary_fire_data_2002_2018.shp : shapefile containing daily binary lightning-caused fire observations on a continuous 0.25x0.25 degree grid for Alaska. 1=at least one lighting-caused fire occurred, 0 no fire occurred. 

Drivers_predictions_and_observations_2002-2011_10x.csv : daily values of model predictor variables (climate, fuel moisture, land cover), predictions of lightning strike rate, ignition efficiency, and fire probability, and observations of lighting strike rate and lightning-caused fire. 

model_performance/

Random forest, coefficient estimates, and performance metrics for lighting prediction models and ignition efficiency models.

Model_predictions/

predictions from fire model

Other_data/

Unprocessed fire location data downloaded from AKFED [1]

Partially processed datasets generated during data preprocessing, including:

Lighting strike rates

Era5 climate data

Wildfire data

Land cover data

Some of these .csv files are used to generate figures for the manuscript

Rds/

Rds files containing fitted lightning prediction and ignition efficiency bayesian models 

Data cover the Alaska for the years 2002 - 2018. Unprocessed ERA5 climate data [2] can be downloaded from Copernicus Climate Change Service  and include CAPE (J/kg), 2 meter temperature (℃), instantaneous 10 meter wind gust (m/s), mean surface downward short-wave radiation flux (W/m2), surface pressure (Pa), mean total precipitation rate (kg/m2/s), and relative humidity (%, calculated from temperature and 2 meter dew point temperature). Unprocessed daily lighting strike count data can be downloaded from the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN), maintained by the Alaska Fire Service (AFS) [3], [4]. Wildfire ignition data were obtained from the Alaska-Yukon-Northwest Territories Fire Emissions Database (AKFED), version 2, archived at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center [1]. Unprocessed land-cover data come from the North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) to derive vegetation cover predictors [5]

References:

[1] R. C. Scholten, S. Veraverbeke, R. Jandt, E. A. Miller, and B. M. Rogers, “ABoVE: Ignitions, Burned Area, and Emissions of Fires in AK, YT, and NWT, 2001-2018,” ORNL Distrib. Act. Arch. Cent. DAAC Dataset 103334ORNLDAAC1812 2021, p. 1812, Jan. 2021, doi: 10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1812. 

[2] H. Hersbach et al., “The ERA5 global reanalysis,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 146, no. 730, pp. 1999–2049, 2020, doi: 10.1002/qj.3803. 

[3] U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (BLM), “BLM AFS Impact System Lightning 1986-2012 Points, NAD83.” Mar. 07, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://fire.ak.blm.gov/predsvcs/maps.php 

[4] U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (BLM), “BLM AFS TOA Lightning 2012-2025 Points, WGS84.” Oct. 06, 2025. [Vector digital data]. Available: https://fire.ak.blm.gov/predsvcs/maps.php 

[5] Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC), “NALCMS. The North American Land Change Monitoring System — A trinational collaboration of more than 21 million square kilometers.” Sep. 25, 2024. [2005, 2010, 2015, and 2025 raster digital data]. Available: https://www.cec.org/north-american-environmental-atlas/?_atlas_keyword=land-cover