Risk of carbon storage within China's terrestrial ecosystem-A comprehensive assessment under different development scenarios

Previous assessments of carbon storage risk in China’s terrestrial ecosystem varied greatly because of the tremendous difference in natural environment and economic development. A comprehensive framework for assessing carbon storage risk was proposed by integrating carbon balance pattern and carbon storage. To ensure the accuracy of predicting carbon storage and the comprehensiveness of risk assessment, simulations of land use were conducted under different development scenarios, and carbon density for each land-use type was revised. In 2040, at least 13.005 Pg C may be threatened within China’s terrestrial ecosystem, approximately accounting for 15.025% of its total amount. Our findings will provide a benchmark for calculating carbon storage, and offer a new insight in evaluating potential risk in carbon storage globally.