Capabilities of RNA velocity models.

Experimental approaches for measuring single-cell gene expression can observe each cell at only one time point, requiring computational approaches for reconstructing the dynamics of gene expression during cell fate transitions. RNA velocity is a promising computational approach for this problem, but existing inference methods fail to capture key aspects of real data, limiting their utility. To address these limitations, we developed VeloVAE, a Bayesian model for RNA velocity inference. VeloVAE uses variational Bayesian inference to estimate the posterior distribution of latent time, latent cell state, and kinetic rate parameters for each cell. Our approach can incorporate prior distributions on rate parameters and time points; model lineage bifurcations using branching differential equations; and directly model discrete count data. We show that VeloVAE significantly outperforms previous approaches in terms of data fit, accuracy of inferred differentiation directions, and transcription rate estimation. These improvements allow VeloVAE to accurately model gene expression dynamics in complex biological systems, including hematopoiesis, induced pluripotent stem cell reprogramming, the developing mouse brain, and the entire mouse embryo. We find that the latent time automatically inferred using all cells can even outperform pseudotime inferred using manually chosen cell subsets and root cells. Our work provides important new tools for modeling sequential changes in gene expression from single-cell expression data.