Estimates of State Transition Rate (per person-year) adjusted for Cytology Misclassification Assumptions, by IAC-Exclusion Window (≤180 vs. ≤30 days)1.

1.Model estimates fit with time-updated infrared coagulation (IRC) indicator and standardized to reflect transition rates for those who never underwent IRC. Thus, these rates estimate the untreated natural history of AIN if the rates remain constant over time and if the Markov assumption is valid.2.IAC exclusion window: Cases of invasive anal carcinoma (IAC) diagnosed within 180 or 30 days of the first cytology result, respectively, were considered prevalent cases and were therefore excluded from analysis.3.State Transitions: HSIL: high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion; IAC: invasive anal carcinoma.