Modeling the Potential Distribution of Mangifera indica L. under Future Climate Scenarios in the Caatinga Biome

Abstract Mangifera indica L. (mangueira) is an invasive exotic plant in the Northeast region of Brazil. In the state of Ceará, its presence deserves special attention in the Environmental Protection Area (EPA) of the Serra de Baturité (north sector of state). The synergism of bioinvasion with the warming of the climatic system added to the lack of knowledge about the local geographic distribution of this species limits any invasion control initiatives in the future. The objectives of this study were: 1) to model the potential geographical distribution of climatically adequate areas for M. indica in the Caatinga biome in future climatic scenarios; 2) to evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of the projected areas, with emphasis on the EPA of Serra de Baturité. For the modeling, we used the MaxEnt algorithm, the time slices 1961-1990 (actual state of climate), 2041-2060 (2050) and 2061-2080 (2070) and the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CMIP5. Five models were generated from which the models for 2070 projected contraction above 50% for areas of high potential occurrence of the target species.