Two Stage Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Calculating Moisture-Tracking Atmospheric Motion Vectors

Much of the errors of Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) may be a consequence of algorithms not incorporating dynamical information. A physics-informed, artificial intelligence algorithm was developed that corrects errors of moisture tracking AMV (from the movement of water vapor) using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) fields. The University of Arizona algorithm (UA) uses a variational method as a first step (fsUA), the second step then filters the first-stage AMVs using a Random Forest model that learns the error correction from NWP fields. The UA algorithm is compared with a traditional image feature tracking algorithm (JPL) using a global nature run as the “ground truth”. Experiments use global all sky humidity fields at 500 hPa and 850 hPa,and for January 1-3, 2006, and July 1-3, 2006. UA outputs AMVs with Root Mean Square VectorDifferences (RMSVDs) of 2 m/s for the tropics and ∼ 2 - 3 m/s for mid-latitudes and the poles, whereas JPL outputs much higher RMSVDs of ∼ 3 m/s for the tropics and ∼ 3 - 9 m/s for the mid-latitudes and poles. Although the algorithm fsUA produces approximately the same global RMSVDs as the JPL algorithm, fsUA has a higher resolution since it outputs an AMV per pixel, whereas the JPL algorithm uses a target box that effectively smooths the vectors. Furthermore, UA’s RMSVDs are lower than the intrinsic error (calculated from the differences between two reanalysis datasets). Even for error-prone regions with low moisture gradients and where winds are oriented along moisture isolines, UA’s absolute speed difference with “truth” stays within ∼ 3 m/s.