Replication Package for: The Econometrics of Hollywood Tournaments: Social Choice, Preferential Balloting, and Precursor Orthogonalization in Academy Award Forecasting

This repository provides the complete open science replication package for the research article: "The Econometrics of Hollywood Tournaments: Social Choice, Preferential Balloting, and Precursor Orthogonalization in Academy Award Forecasting" submitted to the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society). It contains the census dataset of all 191 motion pictures nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture across a 25-year tournament window (2000–2024, 72nd–96th Academy Awards), along with full Python reproduction scripts implementing L2-regularized grouped conditional logit estimation, precursor spectral decomposition, and Instant-Runoff Voting (IRV) tabulation simulation. Data Provenance and Primary Institutional Sources All nomination records, category honors, and precursor award indicators across the 25-year census were compiled directly and cross-reconciled against official institutional archives: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS): Official Academy Awards Database (awardsdatabase.oscars.org) Producers Guild of America (PGA): PGA Awards Historical Archives (producersguild.org) Directors Guild of America (DGA): DGA Historical Nominees & Winners Database (dga.org) Screen Actors Guild (SAG-AFTRA): SAG Awards Official Honoree Archive (sagawards.org) British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA): BAFTA Awards Database (awards.bafta.org) Critics Choice Association (CCA): Critics Choice Movie Awards Archives (criticschoice.com) Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA): Golden Globe Awards Official Database (goldenglobes.com) Writers Guild of America (WGA): Writers Guild of America Historical Database (wga.org) Every observation was subjected to double-blind independent verification against official ceremony telecast records to ensure complete historical accuracy without data leakage.