Preliminary estimate of floods discharge in Brazil using Creager envelope curves|洪水流量估算数据集|水文研究数据集

ABSTRACT Hydrologic studies are essential for the design and safety of hydraulic structures. In the past, a number of empirical equations were developed to represent relationships between drainage areas and observed peak discharges. Although these empirical equations have not been used frequently to study peak discharges due to the use of more detailed and sophisticated analysis, they can be used to estimate reference values, especially in ungaged sites. The objective of this paper is to assess peak discharges observed in many regions in Brazil, estimate the 10,000-year discharges according the Guia para Cálculo de Cheia de Projeto de Vertedores from Eletrobrás and compare them to the Creager envelope curves. In this study we used the records of naturalized discharges for the period of 1931 to 2012, for 131 hydroelectric projects selected in the main river basins in Brazil, using the official data published by the Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS) for the Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN). The results presented in this paper show that it is possible to use the Creager envelope curves as a preliminary estimate of the design floods in Brazil. Generally, values of the Greager C coefficient between 60 and 100 are recommended for a preliminary estimate of a range of maximum discharges within drainage areas bigger than 10,000 km2. The results can be used in the preliminary estimate of maximum discharges and 10,000-year discharges for sites with no data using C values obtained from areas with enough data in the same river basin and with similar physical characteristics.