Land use intensity dominates vegetation cover change in arid areas of China

Xinjiang, as the core area of the ecological security barrier in northwest China, is also one of the sensitive areas to global change. In the past two decades, the vegetation cover in Xinjiang has been undergoing changes due to the dual impacts of climate change and human activities. However, research distinguishing changes in vegetation cover across multiple types over long time spans is still insufficient. Based on MODIS-NDVI data and combined with terrain, climate, soil water content and anthropogenic activities data, this study explores the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020 and its driving factors using statistical methods such as geographic detectors. The results show that (1) Vegetation cover accounts for about 25% of the area, with NDVI values above 0.2, showing higher values in the northeast and lower values in the southwest; (2) The averaged annual maximum NDVI increasing at a rate of 0.0336 yr^-1, with significant improvement observed in 33.72% of the area and significant degradation in 5.49%; (3) The anthropogenic activities were the primary driving factors for spatiotemporal variation of NDVI, followed by soil water content, climate and terrain. The findings of this study can provide data support and scientific basis for achieving the “dual carbon” goal, formulating effective land management and vegetation restoration strategies, and coping with climate change.